Goodbye Julia, Hello Tony?

Well This Sucks, Doesn’t It?

The election has so far turned in a result that looks like a hung parliament. Neither of the 2 major parties got the 76 seats. As of this writing, it’s Coalition 72, ALP 70, Other Independents on 5 and 3 undecided. Of the 3 undecided, it’s looking like 2 will go to the ALP and1 to the Libs. We won’t know who will form government ad how now because both leaders have to negotiate and persuade the 5 other independents to form a government.

Of the 5, one is Green. 3 are ex-National Party members including the immensely red-necked Bob Katter.  These guys might do one of two things: they might stick to their general side of politics and help Tony Abbott form his government; or they could thumb their noses  at their old party just to spite them and form a government with Julia Gillard. My hunch tells me that the latter is less likely, so it may actually be Tony Abbott who is going to be the next Prime Minister of Australia.

So much for the first female PM of Australia.

What Does This Really Mean?

Eye-balling the election coverage it seemed that the ALP primary vote sat at about 37.7% all night long; the Greens had about 11%; The Coalition had a solid 45%, which left a swinging middle of about 7%. Even with half of that 7%, the ALP with Green preferences were looking at about 51.5%. If you took 1% away from the Greens’ preferences because you can only realy count on 90% of these, that number slips to 50.5% for the ALP (ad 49.5% for the Coalition) which is just about where the AEC said primary votes sat at, at the end of the night.

I watched both Julia Gillard’s and Tony Abbott’s speech and Tony Abbott strongly implied the result was a denunciation of the ALP government, but it seems to me if that were the case, then the electorate certainly didn’t resoundingly back him either. There is no mandate for Abbott any more than there is any legitimacy for the ALP to continue governing. If anything, you can feel the leeriness the electorate felt about the whole election. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Six of one, half a dozen of the other. Death or Bunji – Death by Bunji.

Truth be known I felt at the end of the night that this might be the last time I’ll bother to care so much about elections and politics. I’ve had enough. I have to vote as a citizen, but I’m eminently displeased with the choices on offer. I struggled with my conscience and didn’t donkey vote, but if the outcome is going to be like this, then I sort of wonder if any of this is sensible.

I’ll think about this for the next couple of days.

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